O Brasil poderá registrar em 2017 a maior safra de sua história: 213,7 milhões de toneladas de cereais, leguminosas e oleaginosas. As previsões, se confirmadas, indicam que este ano a safra poderá ser 16,1% superior ao total do ano passado: 184 milhões de toneladas – uma queda de 12,2% em relação ao recorde de 2015 (209,7 milhões).
Os dados fazem parte do terceiro prognóstico para a safra deste ano e constam do Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola (LSPA) de dezembro, divulgado, hoje (10), no Rio de Janeiro, pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE).
Para o instituto, a queda de 12,2% na safra de 2016 foi a primeira retração da produção agrícola desde os 8,3% da retração da produção de 2009 e a maior desde os -13,3 da safra de 1996 na relação com a de 1995.
Sobre o crescimento previsto para a safra deste ano, o IBGE destaca que o aumento da produção deverá se dar em todas as regiões do país, com destaque para a previsão de crescimento de 73% para a safra do Nordeste; 20,5% para o Centro-Oeste; 13,4% do Norte; 11,1% do Sudeste; e 5,8% da região Sul do país.
Números da safra 2016
Os últimos prognósticos do IBGE em relação à safra 2016, e que apontam para uma produção de 184 milhões de toneladas de cereais, leguminosas e oleaginosas – resultado 12,2% menor que o de 2015 – indicam que a área a ser colhida na safra do ano passado é de 57,1 milhões de hectares, representando queda de 0,9% em relação a 2014.
O arroz, o milho e a soja, principais produtos deste grupo, representaram 92,2% da estimativa da produção e responderam por 87,8% da área a ser colhida. Em relação a 2015, houve recuos na produção da soja (-1,8%), do arroz (-14%) e do milho (-25,7%).
Regiões do país
Para 2016, a distribuição regional esperada da produção de grão é de 75,1 milhões de toneladas no Centro-Oeste; de 73 milhões, no Sul (as duas regiões respondem juntas por 80% de toda a safra brasileira de grãos); 19,6 milhões de toneladas, no Sudeste; 9,5 milhões, no Nordeste; e 6,7 milhões, no Norte.
Em relação à safra de 2015, houve redução de 2,1% no Sudeste, de 12,5% no Norte, de 42% no Nordeste, de 16,3% no Centro-Oeste e de 3,6% no Sul. Na avaliação para 2016, Mato Grosso foi o maior produtor nacional de grãos, com uma participação de 23,9% no total do país, seguido pelo Paraná (19,0%) e Rio Grande do Sul (17,3%). Somados, esses três estados representaram 60,2 % do total nacional previsto.
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