Vendas no Varejo Capixaba ainda em queda

O volume de vendas do comércio varejista capixaba apresentou nova queda em maio comparado com abril, após leve melhora na comparação entre abril e março (0,5%), registrando variação negativa de 2,3%. Nessa comparação, o Brasil também apresentou queda de 1,0%. As séries que comparam o mês corrente com o mês anterior possuem ajuste sazonal.

A tendência de queda na comparação mensal se confirma com os recuos nas variações no volume de vendas nas comparações com o mesmo mês do ano passado (interanual) e na variação acumulada. Na comparação interanual (maio de 2015) a queda para o Espírito Santo foi de 15,2%. Para o Brasil, a queda foi de 9,0%. Nos primeiros cinco meses do ano, o comércio capixaba acumula uma retração de 10,7% em comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado. Para o Brasil, o acumulado das vendas registrou queda de 7,3%.

O desempenho negativo na comparação interanual foi influenciado, principalmente, pelas retrações nas atividades de Móveis (-41,9%) e Equipamentos e Materiais para Escritório, Informática e Comunicação (-38,6%). A dinâmica de vendas desses segmentos está diretamente associada à disponibilização de crédito, atualmente escasso. Todos os segmentos do comércio varejista apresentaram retração em relação ao mesmo mês do ano passado. A exceção foi o segmento de Artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos, de perfumaria e cosméticos que apresentou um pequeno crescimento de 0,5%.

No comércio varejista ampliado, que incorpora os setores de veículos, motocicletas, partes e peças, e materiais de construção, a retração das vendas no comércio capixaba foi de 20,3% na comparação com o mesmo mês do ano anterior. Entre os estados, a queda de 20,3% foi a maior do Brasil. A queda continua sendo mais influenciada pela retração nas vendas de veículos, motocicletas, partes e peças que caiu -31,9%, enquanto para os materiais de construção a retração foi de -3,4%.

Como se pode notar, a retomada nas vendas ainda é incerta, pois há uma volatilidade dos indicadores alternando meses com pequenos crescimentos e outros com quedas. Reflexo disso é mostrado quando se olha para as variações acumuladas do volume de vendas, que estão bem negativas.  A pesquisa de Intenção de Consumo das Famílias realizada no município de Vitória, divulgada pela Fecomércio-ES, mostrou que em maio de 2016, 72,4% das famílias declararam estar comprando menos que no ano passado. Apesar de a pesquisa ser apenas em um município do estado, pode-se ter uma noção do que acontece para o estado, e a intenção de consumo baixa é confirmada pela pesquisa do IBGE.

Pesquisa Mensal do Comércio – PMC – IBGE

 

Variação % volume de vendas mês/mês anterior, com ajuste sazonal

Atividades % Abr16 X Mar16 % Mai16 X Abr16
Brasil +0,5 -1,0
Espírito Santo +0,5 -2,3

Fonte: PMC/IBGE. Elaboração: Fecomércio ES.

 

 

Demais variações no volume de vendas %, sem ajuste sazonal

Atividades Variação mensal % Abr16 X Abr15 Variação acumulada no ano % (base: igual período do ano anterior) Variação % acumulada de 12 meses
Comércio – Brasil -9,0 -7,3 -6,5
Comércio – Espírito Santo -15,2 -10,7 -10,0
Combustíveis e lubrificantes -15,5 -14,5 -13,8
Hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo -8,2 -4,4 -4,0
     Hipermercados e supermercados -8,1 -4,3 -3,9
Tecidos, vestuário e calçados -25,8 -10,5 -11,6
Móveis e eletrodomésticos -25,0 -21,1 -18,4
      Móveis -41,9 -38,4 -30,1
      Eletrodomésticos -13,6 -8,2 -9,7
Artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos, de perfumaria e cosméticos 0,5 2,7 1,9
Livros, jornais, revistas e papelaria -10,5 -9,0 -10,8
Equipamentos e materiais para escritório, informática e comunicação -38,6 0,7 -2,7
Outros artigos de uso pessoal e doméstico -33,7 -32,4 -27,3
Comércio Ampliado – Brasil -10,2 -9,5 -9,7
Comércio Ampliado – Espírito Santo -20,3 -18,9 -18,8
Veículos, motocicletas, partes e peças -31,9 -33,0 -32,2
Material de construção -3,4 -6,8 -8,7

Fonte: PMC/IBGE. Elaboração: Fecomércio ES.

 

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