Pela nona vez seguida, o Banco Central (BC) baixou os juros básicos da economia. Por unanimidade, o Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) reduziu nesta quarta (25) a taxa Selic em 0,75 ponto percentual, de 8,25% ao ano para 7,5% ao ano. A decisão era esperada pelos analistas financeiros.
Com a redução de hoje, a Selic iguala-se ao nível de maio de 2013, quando também estava em 7,5% ao ano. De outubro de 2012 a abril de 2013, a taxa foi mantida em 7,25% ao ano, no menor nível da história, e passou a ser reajustada gradualmente até alcançar 14,25% ao ano em julho de 2015. Somente em outubro do ano passado, o Copom voltou a reduzir os juros básicos da economia.
Em comunicado, o Copom informou que a conjuntura econômica prevê que os juros continuarão abaixo da taxa estrutural (juros necessários para segurar a inflação) por algum tempo. Segundo o BC, somente a aprovação das reformas estruturais poderá garantir a manutenção dos juros em níveis baixos por longo tempo.
Nas últimas quatro reuniões, o Copom reduziu a taxa em 1 ponto percentual. No encontro de hoje, o ritmo de corte caiu para 0,75 ponto. De acordo com o comunicado, a intensidade do corte pode cair ainda mais nas próximas reuniões. “Para a próxima reunião, caso o cenário básico evolua conforme esperado, e em razão do estágio do ciclo de flexibilização, o Comitê vê, neste momento, como adequada uma redução moderada na magnitude de flexibilização monetária”, destacou o Banco Central.
A Selic é o principal instrumento do Banco Central para manter sob controle a inflação oficial, medida pelo Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA). Segundo o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), o IPCA ficou em 0,16% em setembro, próximo da mínima histórica de 0,08% registrada em setembro do ano passado.
Nos 12 meses terminados em setembro, o IPCA acumula 2,54%, a menor taxa em 12 meses desde fevereiro de 1999. Até o ano passado, o Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN) estabelecia meta de inflação de 4,5%, com margem de tolerância de 2 pontos, podendo chegar a 6,5%. Para este ano, o CMN reduziu a margem de tolerância para 1,5 ponto percentual. A inflação, portanto, não poderá superar 6% neste ano nem ficar abaixo de 3%.
Inflação
No Relatório de Inflação, divulgado no fim de setembro pelo Banco Central, a autoridade monetária estima que o IPCA encerrará 2017 em 3,2%. De acordo com o boletim Focus, pesquisa semanal com instituições financeiras divulgada pelo BC, a inflação oficial deverá fechar o ano em 3,06%, mesmo com os aumentos recentes nos preços dos combustíveis.
Até agosto do ano passado, o impacto de preços administrados, como a elevação de tarifas públicas; e o de alimentos como feijão e leite contribuiu para a manutenção dos índices de preços em níveis altos. De lá para cá, no entanto, a inflação começou a cair por causa da recessão econômica e da queda do dólar.
Crédito
A redução da taxa Selic estimula a economia porque juros menores barateiam o crédito e incentivam a produção e o consumo em um cenário de baixa atividade econômica. Segundo o boletim Focus, os analistas econômicos projetam crescimento de 0,73% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB, soma dos bens e serviços produzidos pelo país) em 2017. A estimativa está em linha com o último Relatório de Inflação, divulgado em setembro, no qual o BC projetava expansão da economia de 0,7% este ano.
A taxa básica de juros é usada nas negociações de títulos públicos no Sistema Especial de Liquidação e Custódia (Selic) e serve de referência para as demais taxas de juros da economia. Ao reajustá-la para cima, o Banco Central segura o excesso de demanda que pressiona os preços, porque juros mais altos encarecem o crédito e estimulam a poupança. Ao reduzir os juros básicos, o Copom barateia o crédito e incentiva a produção e o consumo, mas enfraquece o controle da inflação.
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