Projeção de inflação sobe pela quinta vez e vai para 7,25%

A projeção de instituições financeiras para a inflação, medida pelo Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA), este ano, subiu pela quinta vez seguida, ao passar de 7,19% para 7,25%. Para 2017, a estimativa é mantida em 5,50% há cinco semanas. As projeções fazem parte de pesquisa feita todas as semanas pelo Banco Central (BC) e divulgada às segundas-feiras.

As estimativas estão acima do centro da meta de inflação de 4,5%. O limite superior da meta de inflação é 6,5%, este ano e 6% em 2017. É função do Banco Central fazer com que a inflação fique dentro da meta. Um dos instrumentos usados para influenciar a atividade econômica e, consequentemente, a inflação, é a taxa básica de juros, a Selic.

Preços

Quando o Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central aumenta a Selic, o objetivo é conter a demanda aquecida, e isso gera reflexos nos preços, porque os juros mais altos encarecem o crédito e estimulam a poupança. Já quando o Copom reduz os juros básicos, a tendência é que o crédito fique mais barato, com incentivo à produção e ao consumo, mas a medida alivia o controle sobre a inflação.

O BC tem que encontrar equilíbrio ao tomar decisões sobre a taxa básica de juros, de modo a fazer com que a inflação fique dentro da meta estabelecida pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional. Atualmente, a Selic está em 14,25% ao ano.

A expectativa das instituições financeiras para a taxa ao final de 2016 foi mantida em 13% ao ano. Para o fim de 2017, também não houve alteração na expectativa: 11,25% ao ano. A estimativa de instituições financeiras para a queda do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país, foi alterada de 3,60% para 3,44%, neste ano. Para 2017, a estimativa de crescimento foi mantida em 1%.

A projeção para a cotação do dólar passou de R$ 3,65 para R$ 3,60, no fim deste ano, e de R$ 3,81 para R$ 3,80, no final de 2017.

 

Fonte: Agência Brasil

 

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