Mercado financeiro projeta inflação menor este ano: 6,89%

moedas-pintInstituições financeiras consultadas pelo Banco Central (BC) esperam uma inflação menor neste ano e em 2017. De acordo com a pesquisa Focus, divulgada toda segunda-feira pelo BC, a inflação, medida pelo Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA), vai fechar este ano em 6,89%, no sexto ajuste seguido. Na semana passada, a estimativa era 7,01%.

Para 2017, a estimativa foi ajustada de 5,04% para 5%. Essa foi a terceira redução consecutiva. As projeções ultrapassam o centro da meta que é 4,5%. O teto da meta é 6,5%, este ano, e 6% em 2017.

A projeção de instituições financeiras para a queda da economia (Produto Interno Bruto – PIB) este ano, passou pela terceira piora seguida, ao ser ajustada de 3,19% para 3,22%. Para 2017, a expectativa de crescimento foi reduzida de 1,30% para 1,23%.

Com a expectativa de retração da economia e inflação menor, as instituições financeiras esperam que a taxa básica de juros, a Selic, encerre 2017 em 13,50%. Na semana passada, o Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do BC reduziu a Selic de 14,25% para 14% ao ano. A última reunião do Copom deste ano está marcada para o final de novembro. Ou seja, o mercado espera por um corte de 0,5 ponto percentual na Selic ainda neste ano.

Para as instituições financeiras, o BC dará continuidade ao ciclo de redução da Selic no próximo ano. A expectativa é que a taxa básica termine 2017 em 11% ao ano.

A taxa é usada nas negociações de títulos públicos no Sistema Especial de Liquidação e Custódia (Selic) e serve como referência para as demais taxas de juros da economia. Ao reajustá-la para cima, o BC contém o excesso de demanda que pressiona os preços, porque os juros mais altos encarecem o crédito e estimulam a poupança. Quando reduz os juros básicos, o Copom barateia o crédito e incentiva a produção e o consumo, mas alivia o controle sobre a inflação.

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