Recessão já reduz velocidade do crescimento da inflação

Repórter Capixaba Brasil 141

inflaçãoA recessão econômica vivida pelo Brasil já começa a ter reflexos nos índices de inflação. O Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo – IPCA do mês de março apresentou variação de 0,43%, menos da metade da taxa de 0,90% de fevereiro. Desde 2012, com o IPCA de 0,21%, não havia registro de resultado mais baixo nos meses de março. Considerando o primeiro trimestre do ano, o índice situa-se em 2,62%, percentual inferior aos 3,83% registrados em igual período de 2015. Nos últimos doze meses, a taxa ficou em 9,39%, abaixo dos 10,36% relativos aos doze meses imediatamente anteriores. Em março de 2015, o IPCA havia ficado em 1,32%, a maior taxa desde fevereiro de 2003 (1,57%).

Em março, IPCA fica em 0,43%

Período TAXA
MARÇO 2016 0,43%
Fevereiro 2016 0,90%
Março 2015 1,32%
Acumulado 2016 2,62%
Acumulado em 12 meses 9,39%

Os números divulgados nesta sexta-feira pelo IBGE mostram que a inflação começa a desacelerar exatamente pela lei máxima da economia: a da oferta e procura. Como os consumidores estão sem dinheiro – por causa do desemprego ou pelo alto endividamento – e sem disposição para comprar, preocupados com os desdobramentos das crises econômica e política, os comerciantes não podem aumentar os preços. Desse modo, a inflação recua.  O resultado é capturado pelo IPCA que já começa a mostrar o desaquecimento da demanda por bens e serviços no país, conforme informou a coordenadora de índices de Preços do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), Eulina Nunes dos Santos.

Alimentação e Bebidas, grupo com peso de 25,52%, o maior no orçamento das famílias, apresentou variação de 1,24% e dominou o IPCA do mês, com impacto de 0,32 p.p., respondendo por 74% do índice.

No grupo Alimentação e Bebidas (1,24%), a maior variação ficou com a região metropolitana de Porto Alegre, onde a alta chegou a 2,15%. Em relação aos itens pesquisados, os alimentos comprados para serem consumidos em casa aumentaram 1,61%, enquanto a alimentação fora de casa ficou em 0,55%.

Isoladamente, o item “frutas”, com alta de 8,91%, deteve o principal impacto do mês, 0,10 p.p.. Além disso, foram registrados aumentos expressivos na cenoura (14,52%), no açaí (13,64%), no alho (5,70%), no leite (4,57%), no feijão-carioca (4,10%), entre outros.

Para cálculo do índice do mês foram comparados os preços coletados no período de 01 a 30 de março de 2016 (referência) com os preços vigentes no período de 29 de janeiro a 29 de fevereiro de 2016 (base). O IPCA, calculado pelo IBGE desde 1980, se refere às famílias com rendimento monetário de 01 a 40 salários mínimos, qualquer que seja a fonte, e abrange dez regiões metropolitanas do país, além dos municípios de Goiânia, Campo Grande e de Brasília.

Em março, INPC fica em 0,44%

O Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor – INPC apresentou variação de 0,44%, em março, e ficou abaixo do resultado de 0,95% de fevereiro em 0,51 p.p.. Desde 2012, com o INPC de 0,18%, não havia registro de resultado mais baixo nos meses de março. Considerando o primeiro trimestre do ano, o índice situa-se em 2,93%, percentual inferior aos 4,21% registrados em igual período de 2015. Na ótica dos últimos doze meses, a taxa foi para 9,91% e ficou abaixo dos 11,08% relativos aos doze meses imediatamente anteriores. Em março de 2015, o INPC havia ficado em 1,51%.

Os produtos alimentícios apresentaram-se com 1,12%, em março, enquanto em fevereiro a alta foi de 1,19%. O agrupamento dos não alimentícios teve variação de 0,14%, em março, bem abaixo da taxa de 0,84%, de fevereiro.

Dentre os índices regionais, o maior foi o da região metropolitana de São Paulo (0,68%), em virtude da alta de 5,61% no item cigarro, que refletiu o reajuste médio de 15% ocorrido nos dias 16 e 21 de fevereiro, em determinadas marcas, apesar da redução de 6% em 29 de fevereiro sobre o preço de produto específico e, também de 6%, em 07 de março, sobre outro produto. O menor índice foi o da região metropolitana de Salvador, que ficou em -0,07% em razão, principalmente, da queda de 8,53% no item energia elétrica, além do preço do litro da gasolina, que ficou 2,41% mais barato. A seguir, tabela com os resultados mensais por região pesquisada.

Para cálculo do índice do mês foram comparados os preços coletados no período de 01 a 30 de março de 2016 (referência) com os preços vigentes no período de 29 de janeiro a 29 de fevereiro de 2016 (base). O INPC, calculado pelo IBGE desde 1979, se refere às famílias com rendimento monetário de 01 a 05 salários mínimos, sendo o chefe assalariado, e abrange dez regiões metropolitanas do país, além dos municípios de Goiânia, Campo Grande e de Brasília.

 

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