Projeção de crescimento da economia cai para 0,5% este ano

O Banco Central (BC) reduziu a projeção para o crescimento da economia este ano. A estimativa para a expansão do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país, foi ajustada de 0,8%, estimativa de dezembro, para 0,5%, de acordo com o Relatório de Inflação divulgado hoje (30), em Brasília, no site do BC.

A projeção para a produção da agricultura é de aumento de 6,4% ante a estimativa anterior de 4%. No ano passado, houve recuo de 6,6%, o pior resultado já registrado. A estimativa para o desempenho da indústria foi revisada de crescimento 0,6% para recuo de 0,1%. Para o setor de serviços e comércio, a expectativa de crescimento passou de 0,4% para 0,1%.

A projeção para a expansão do consumo das famílias foi revisada de 0,4% para 0,5%, após queda de 4,2% em 2016, pior resultado já anotado. “Esse cenário repercute o ambiente de aumentos da renda real e dos indicadores de confiança, os impactos da liberação dos recursos das contas inativas do FGTS (Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço) e as perspectivas de estabilização do mercado de trabalho no segundo semestre”, diz o relatório.

O consumo do governo deve crescer 0,2%, ante projeção de 0,5% em dezembro, “recuo compatível com o ajuste fiscal em curso”.

Investimentos devem ter retração

Os investimentos (Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo – FBCF) deverão apresentar retração de 0,3%, ante projeção de crescimento de 0,3% em dezembro.

As exportações e as importações de bens e serviços devem variar 2,4% e 3,5% em 2017, diante de projeções respectivas de 2,2% e 4,1% no Relatório de Inflação de dezembro.

“A evolução das exportações reflete o desempenho positivo de culturas agrícolas relevantes na pauta. A redução na projeção das importações está condicionada, em grande parte, a revisões para baixo na indústria e na FBCF”, diz o BC.

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