2016 teve 375 lojas fechadas por dia, diz Confederação do Comércio

Quase 68 mil lojas fecharam as portas no país entre janeiro e julho deste ano. São cerca de 375 lojas fechadas por dia. O ritmo supera em 143% o do primeiro semestre do ano passado. Nos primeiros sete meses de 2015, 27,8 mil unidades encerraram as atividades. Os números são da Confederação Nacional do Comércio (CNC) que  calcula que o faturamento do comércio em 2016 deve sofrer queda de 4,8%, segundo previsões da Confederação Nacional do Comércio de Bens, Serviços e Turismo (CNC).

Após o pior primeiro trimestre da série histórica da Pesquisa Mensal de Comércio (PMC), que registrou retração de 7,0% nas vendas em relação ao mesmo período de 2015, a CNC revisou sua expectativa para este ano, que antes era de 4,6%.Se confirmadas as previsões, 2016 será o ano com o pior desempenho do comércio desde 2001.

“Apesar da perda de força da inflação e seus impactos favoráveis sobre o volume de vendas, o contínuo encarecimento do crédito e a confiança abalada de consumidores e empresários levaram a CNC a reforçar a expectativa de que 2016 será o pior ano do setor varejista desde o início da PMC”, afirmou o economista da CNC Fabio Bentes.

Para o varejo ampliado, que engloba os setores automotivo e de materiais de construção, a CNC manteve a previsão de queda no faturamento de 8,8% ao final do ano.

Taxas negativas recordes

No varejo ampliado, a retração no primeiro trimestre alcançou 9,4%, registrando, igualmente, o pior comportamento das vendas desde 2004, quando o IBGE iniciou a medição deste segmento.

Na comparação por ramos do varejo, com exceção dos segmentos de hiper e supermercados (-2,8% ante o primeiro trimestre de 2015) e do comércio automotivo (-13,5%), todos os demais registraram taxas recordes negativas nas respectivas séries históricas. No caso da venda de automóveis e autopeças, o pior 1º trimestre se deu em 2015 (-14,8%); portanto, a queda menor em 2016 deve-se basicamente à baixa base comparativa. Já no setor supermercadista, o pior início de ano ocorreu em 2003 (-7,9%), quando o preço de alimentos e bebidas acumulou alta média de 22,3%, ante o mesmo período do ano anterior.

Vendas

A previsão é de que as vendas do varejo caiam 10,6% em 2016, um resultado pior do que o do ano passado, quando o recuo foi de 8,6%. Por enquanto, a expectativa é de que o Dia dos Pais e o Natal também sejam mais fracos, como já aconteceu com outras datas importantes ao longo do ano.

Estudo da CNC estima que o varejo brasileiro deve movimentar R$ 4,2 bilhões em vendas relacionadas ao Dia dos Pais, o equivalente a 5,6% de todo o faturamento esperado para o mês de agosto. Confirmada a projeção, no entanto, o resultado corresponde a uma retração de 9,4% em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado – o pior desempenho desde o início do estudo em 2004, quando as vendas subiram 1,6%.

“O Dia dos Pais figura entre as seis datas comemorativas mais importantes do calendário varejista. Porém, com taxas de juros ao consumidor batendo nove recordes nos últimos 12 meses, os segmentos mais dependentes das condições de crédito, como eletrodomésticos e produtos de informática, deverão se destacar negativamente”, afirma o economista da CNC Fabio Bentes.

Segundo a confederação, o comércio deve perder 267,2 mil postos de trabalho em 2016, depois de já ter fechado 278,5 mil vagas no ano anterior.

 

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