Banco Mundial: crise pode levar 3,6 milhões de brasileiros de volta à pobreza

A crise econômica poderá levar até 3,6 milhões de brasileiros para abaixo da linha de pobreza até o fim do ano. A estimativa é do Banco Mundial, que divulgou estudo referente ao impacto da recessão sobre o nível de renda do brasileiro. A projeção considera que a economia encolherá 1% no segundo semestre de 2016 e no primeiro semestre deste ano (ano-fiscal 2016/2017).

Num cenário mais otimista, que prevê crescimento de 0,5% da economia nesse período, o total de pobres subiria em 2,5 milhões, segundo o Banco Mundial.

Pelos critérios do estudo, são consideradas abaixo da linha de pobreza pessoas que vivem com menos de R$ 140 por mês. Segundo o Banco Mundial, a maior parte dos “novos pobres” virá das áreas urbanas. O aumento da pobreza na zona rural, segundo o estudo, será menor porque as taxas de vulnerabilidade já são elevadas no campo.

Bolsa Família

O estudo também avaliou o impacto do aumento da pobreza no Programa Bolsa Família. De acordo com o Banco Mundial, 810 mil famílias passariam a depender do benefício no cenário mais otimista (crescimento econômico de 0,5%) e 1,16 milhão na previsão mais pessimista (queda de 1%).

Atualmente, o Bolsa Família tem 14 milhões de famílias cadastradas, informa o Ministério do Desenvolvimento Social e Agrário.

O Banco Mundial recomenda a expansão do Bolsa Família para fazer frente à crise. “A profundidade e duração da atual crise econômica no Brasil cria uma oportunidade para expandir o papel do Bolsa Família, que passará de um programa redistributivo eficaz para um verdadeiro programa de rede de proteção flexível o suficiente para expandir a cobertura aos domicílios de ‘novos pobres’ gerados pela crise”, destacou o estudo.

De acordo com o Banco Mundial, o Brasil conseguiu construir uma das maiores redes de proteção social do mundo. A instituição recomenda que o orçamento do Bolsa Família cresça acima da inflação para ampliar a cobertura e atender a um número crescente de pobres. No cenário mais otimista, o programa deveria subir 4,73% acima da inflação acumulada entre 2015 e 2017. Na previsão mais pessimista, a alta deveria ser 6,9% superior à inflação.

Em termos nominais, o orçamento do Bolsa Família subiria de R$ 26,4 bilhões no fim de 2015 para R$ 30,41 bilhões este ano na simulação que considera crescimento econômico e para R$ 31,04 bilhões no caso de um novo encolhimento da economia. O estudo não considerou o efeito da introdução do teto para os gastos públicos, que entrou em vigor este ano, mas avalia que o ajuste fiscal não seria comprometido com a ampliação do Bolsa Família.

“O ajuste fiscal que vem sendo implementado no Brasil pode ser alcançado praticamente sem onerar ou onerando muito pouco a população pobre”, destacou o Banco Mundial. “A despeito das limitações no espaço fiscal a médio prazo, existe uma grande margem para ampliar o orçamento para os elementos mais progressivos da política social, remanejando verbas de programas de benefícios e melhorando a eficiência do gasto público.”

Fonte: Agência Brasil

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