Estudo revela que 69% dos postos de trabalho do setor industrial no mundo podem ser automatizados

Até 2065, o crescimento da produtividade global com a automação passará de 0,8% para 1,4%. A previsão é alterar as profissões e não promover uma extinção generalizada dos empregos

A adoção da robótica, da inteligência artificial e da aprendizagem mecânica poderia dar um salto para a economia em um momento de crescimento de produtividade e envelhecimento da mão de obra em muitos países. As máquinas fariam trabalhos menos qualificados e perigosos, enquanto as pessoas estariam liberadas para inventar, evoluir e gerenciar inovações. O propósito da automação, afinal, não é extinguir os empregos, mas mudar a vida de mais da metade dos trabalhadores em todo o mundo.

É o que diz um estudo da consultoria McKinsey – A future that works: automation, employment and productivity (Um futuro que funciona: automação, emprego e produtividade) – realizado em 54 países que concentram 78% da força de trabalho global. Até 2065, mais da metade das atividades de trabalho poderão ser automatizadas com a tecnologia atual e da próxima década. O Brasil é um dos países com maior potencial de automação de mão de obra, em níveis semelhantes aos da China, da Índia e dos Estados Unidos, aponta o estudo. O potencial de automação brasileiro está estimado em 50%, o que afetaria 53,7 milhões de empregados. A indústria, por sua vez, tem o maior percentual de empregos automatizáveis no país, com 69% dos postos.

A estimativa é que, entre 2036 e 2065, deve-se chegar à metade dessas substituições, que dependem do barateamento das tecnologias frente à mão de obra, do dinamismo do mercado e da aceitação social. A automação tem potencial para elevar, anualmente, o PIB global entre 0,8% e 1,4%, nesse período.

Os empregos que podem ser substituídos têm um custo de US$ 89 bilhões por ano no Brasil (R$ 275 bilhões) e US$ 14,6 trilhões no mundo (R$ 45,2 trilhões), o equivalente a 1,2 bilhão de trabalhadores, metade da força de trabalho mundial.

Menos de 5% das atividades são candidatas à automação completa. A maioria das profissões tem potencial de automação parcial. Cerca de 60% de todas as ocupações têm, ao menos, 30% de atividades que podem ser feitas por máquinas. A previsão é alterar as profissões e não promover uma extinção generalizada dos empregos. “O nível correto de detalhe para se analisar o impacto potencial da automação são as atividades individuais no lugar de ocupações inteiras”, apontou o relatório.

As máquinas tendem a avançar mais em funções como coleta e processamento de dados e trabalho físico em ambientes altamente previsíveis, como o chão das fábricas, onde as mudanças são relativamente fáceis de antecipar. A automação vai impactar até o topo do mercado de trabalho – um quarto da atividade dos CEOs. A análise de relatórios e dados para tomar decisões, por exemplo, já poderia ser substituída por máquinas capazes de processar dados e emitir conclusões.

O levantamento mostra, ainda, a necessidade de mudar a educação para que os jovens ganhem competências nas áreas que vão gerar emprego no futuro, como é o caso da programação e da robótica.

 

 

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